TNF

Titans -5.5

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NFL week 11

Well we hit the big one yesterday in a blowout, then things were very hit and miss. I personally lumped a few extra on the UCF play and also took Wazzou but anyway we are looking at some somewhat unorthodox plays other than this first one

Pitt -4.5 2 units
Line keeps dropping and I know all about how the Jags have their number because I also had Pitt those 2 games. I also saw how they got every bounce! This year the Jags are struggling and Pitt is looking more like what we thought they were last year. Even when they were good Jags were better on the road then at home. I think now the Steelers have fully moved on from Bell, their offense is still one of the league’s best. I think they cash the double revenge tickets.

NYG -2.5 2 units
Usually like to play against a bad team that has won a game, but that’s more if they are now playing a better team. This doesn’t fit that and I think that come from behind last gasp win could spark a mini run with NYG coming home vs another bad team. SF’s rush D is way way better than TB and Barkley should have a big day. TB is a turnover prone, penalty prone, bad defense team who is now switching playcallers to try and spark something, I think the Gmen should continue their misery, if the Gmen continue to play like they did 4th Quarter last game.

Atlanta -3.5
I just see ATL winning this game, Julio Jones vs. Byron Jones, I like Julio and I don’t like Dallas to win a 2nd straight road game with more division games coming up. Unless they’re called TB all the NFC South teams are IMO, better than the NFC East teams at this point.

Indy -1.5
Some may be surprised at Indy being favored after Titans beat the Pats but the Colts offense is on fire right now – their TEs are insane. Luck never lost to the titans who are much better at home and went hard at the Pats. Should be a good game – I’ll take Luck here.

Texans Moneyline
Washington having basically no O line starters didn’t matter against the Bucs but should be a much bigger problem against the front of the Texans. Skins surprised early but their schedule is brutal from here on out and they have been hit with injuries hard. . There will be even better spots to go against Wash later but I like Houston here still, even in the 2nd of a back to back I just don’t see the Skins generating much offense. Texans were shut out completely 2nd half last week which is a little worrying, but they still beat Denver and i just see them pulling this one out

Cardinals -5.5 2 units
I just think david johnson runs wild on that D, and I have to keep going against the Raiders, even with bad teams, until they beat someone. They were driving at the end of the last game and looked so deflated after that loss. Maybe they haven’t quit, but I know one thing – they’re bad, can’t stop anyone.

I was going to play SD too, but I’m already on a huge amount of games, and I am thinking possibly playing Chicago tonight, so that’s plenty for now – 3 2 unit plays and 3 1 unit plays, though the extra juice on the texans makes it close to 1.5 units (betting to win one unit)

This is a somewhat ugly card, but really this time of year I think it just starts to go that way for both college and pro – from Thanksgiving until the start of bowl season I think you gotta take it easy – there won’t be many big plays for me generally in the double digit weeks until we got to the back end, and I like to make sure I keep some of my powder dry until then. And my strategy from those weeks (talking about wk 14-16ish) is simple enough: just basically ride with the teams that will be locking down home field/byes and stuff like that in the later weeks and play against teams that are done a long time, can’t win shit and either have quit, have multiple injuries, or are putting in a young QB because, hell why not, or who are likely to fire their coach, etc.

I’m also heading to Philly this week for Thanksgiving and to attend my 20 year High School reunion. I’ll definitely try to keep up with the posts but if I don’t, that’s why. When I go to special events I want to enjoy them and be present at them in not just body but mind as well and not be checking scores or scouring stat sites or whatever.

NFL week 10

after hitting the big one (5u) we also hit all 3 2 units plays. went 1-3 with our 1 units with a late baylor score screwing up the split.

still, +9 units is a damn good day.

NFL so far I just have sprinkled some 1 unit plays on:

NYJ -7
How can you not fade the Bills every week, even with the Jets?

Chicago -7
Mack is back! and Stafford got sacked 10 times last week.

Titans +6.5
yikes! go against NE? yeah, Titans are gritty, have playoff revenge, former players like Butler, and possibly no Gronk for NE who has. bye on deck before the Jets.

Colts -3
Colts offense is on fire right now, while Jax can’t score at all. Luck is getting great protection, run game is good. If Jags can’t win the trench battle any more they are screwed cuz they have no weapons outside.

Bucs -3
Skins are way too depleted to threaten even the worst defense, nd TBs offense is top of the league.

Rams -9.5
yeah i know the first game was close. i don’t care, Rams are much better and will rock their rival at home.